About seven years ago, I became fascinated with autonomous vehicles for a very selfish reason: I hated my commute. Three hours a day behind the wheel felt like wasted life. I dreamed of the day when my car would drive itself—when I could answer emails, squeeze in a workout, take a nap, or finally catch up on the shows everyone else had already seen.
What started as a personal frustration turned into a professional obsession.
For the last seven years, I’ve traveled across the United States training insurance adjusters and attorneys on the coming storm: the rapid rise of autonomous vehicles and what that shift means for claims, liability, and subrogation. I asked the same question everywhere I went—will this transition be chaos, or will it save hundreds of thousands of lives?
For a long time, the answer from the audience was skepticism.
From Disbelief to Reality
Seven years ago—and even three years ago—most people simply didn’t believe it would happen. They told me they would never trust their lives to a computer program with no human involvement. The idea of a driverless car felt abstract, futuristic, and frankly unrealistic.
Fast forward to today.
At a recent seminar in Los Angeles, I asked the audience how many people had taken a ride in a self-driving vehicle operated by Waymo or a similar platform. Nearly half the room raised their hands. The future is no longer theoretical—it’s already here.
I experienced this firsthand during a recent trip to LA. I took a Waymo to my hotel, white-knuckled for the first few minutes, hyper-aware of every movement. But acclimation happens fast. By the return ride, the jitters were gone. I felt calm—almost bored.
The next morning, I took a human-driven taxi to the airport. The driver nearly rear-ended another vehicle, and I caught myself thinking something I never expected to think: I wish there wasn’t a driver.
Autonomous Vehicles Are No Longer Fringe
Self-driving vehicles are already operating across multiple states. Waymo, the coming Tesla Robotaxi platform, and numerous startups have received approvals to deploy autonomous fleets. Tesla is now selling vehicles equipped with Full Self-Driving and advanced Autopilot capabilities, pushing the technology directly into consumer hands.
Tesla currently leads the pack, but the gap is closing. Most major automakers are developing autonomous systems, and suppliers are accelerating that progress. NVIDIA, for example, recently released a new autonomous-driving hardware and software platform designed to allow manufacturers to rapidly integrate capabilities that rival Tesla’s.
This expansion is fast, aggressive, and irreversible.
The Insurance Industry Must Adapt—Or Be Left Behind
With that acceleration comes a hard truth: the insurance industry will be unrecognizable within the next decade. Adjusters and insurance professionals who fail to adapt risk losing both relevance and their jobs.
Autonomous vehicle claims are already growing, and they will soon trigger a seismic shift in automobile subrogation. The most important change for our purposes is this: subrogation itself will fundamentally change.
Auto subrogation adjusters will no longer live primarily in a world of rear-end collisions and simple negligence analysis. Instead, they will increasingly handle complex product liability claims. Claim flow will slow. Workload per claim will increase. Investigation will become deeper, more technical, and far more expensive.
Technology-driven losses require specialized technicians, OEM parts, proprietary sensors, and costly replacement systems. The days of low-dollar, fast-turn claims are fading.
New Skills, New Experts, New Lawyers
The supporting cast around claims will change as well.
We can no longer rely on “Joe the debt collector” or “Bob the bankruptcy attorney” who once agreed to handle subrogation work on a discount contingency fee. Autonomous vehicle litigation requires experts—and real ones. It requires lawyers who are comfortable living inside a case, touching it constantly, and litigating creatively against sophisticated corporate defendants.
Adjusters must evolve or be replaced. Those working for carriers with strong homeowners or commercial property teams may have an advantage, as auto teams can learn from product-liability workflows already in place. Auto-only carriers will need outside training and support.
Adjusters will need to learn how to:
- Identify and retain qualified experts
- Coordinate black-box and vehicle data downloads
- Schedule and manage joint scene and laboratory inspections
- Preserve evidence and avoid spoliation
- Understand the economic loss doctrine
- Navigate the Restatement of Torts and state-by-state product liability variations
- much more
This is achievable—but it requires commitment, education, and investment.
What Claims Will Look Like Tomorrow
Autonomous technology will expand subrogation opportunities in unexpected ways. Single-vehicle accidents—where a vehicle exits the roadway or strikes a structure due to a technological failure—will become prime candidates for recovery. Liability will increasingly shift away from drivers and toward manufacturers.
Over time, vehicles may be viewed less like driver-controlled machines and more like consumer products—closer to water heaters than automobiles. Owner liability may hinge on negligence rather than mere operation, with responsibility flowing upstream to manufacturers.
At the same time, adverse carriers are already attempting to dodge liability by blaming “technology failures” rather than driver error. Smart carriers must analyze these claims carefully, seeking contribution from manufacturers when their insured reasonably believes autonomous technology failed.
We are also seeing expansion beyond manufacturers. Claims increasingly involve:
- Repair shops that negligently install sensors
- Aftermarket manufacturers whose components fail
- Software updates that were delayed or defective
A tremendous amount of subrogation is currently being missed because frontline teams fail to identify these opportunities early enough. Training the first touchpoint in the claim lifecycle is essential.
Fewer Claims Per Adjuster, But Higher Impact
Adjusters will inevitably handle fewer claims. Product liability investigations are labor-intensive, and the average auto adjuster may see a 50–75% reduction in claim volume. That sounds alarming—until you consider the offset.
Claim values are rising sharply. A minor fender bender involving a Tesla can cost $2,500–$4,000 for a front fascia alone, compared to $300 on a 2017 Volkswagen. Fully autonomous vehicles may double or triple those numbers. OEM parts and authorized repair facilities will become mandatory, as cutting corners creates downstream liability exposure.
Higher claim values mean more subrogation viability. Claims that once never justified recovery efforts suddenly will. The net effect may actually be a boom in subrogation—requiring more specialized adjusters, not fewer.
The Ripple Effect Ahead
The impact of autonomous vehicles will extend far beyond claims handling. Regulations will evolve. Premium structures will shift. Policy language will change. Infrastructure and road design will adapt. Some carriers have already begun reducing premiums for autonomous vehicles, betting on safety improvements and manufacturer recovery pathways.
No one can perfectly predict what comes next. Is autonomous driving a passing fad, or will it redefine transportation entirely? Will personal driving still exist in ten years, or will it follow the horse and buggy into history?
I don’t pretend to know the answers. But I do know this: standing still is not an option.
MWL is actively litigating autonomous vehicle claims across the United States and remains on the cutting edge of this transition. If you are navigating these issues—or want to prepare your team for what’s coming—we are ready to help.
The world may be changing who sits behind the wheel. But with the right preparation, you can still stay firmly in the driver’s seat.
